Accurate census data is crucial to distributing investments in children efficiently and equitably across the states to the children who need it most. Yet children, and especially the nation’s youngest children, are perennially undercounted. Alarmingly, the Census Bureau found that children ages 0–4 were undercounted in the 2020 Census by approximately 1 million, or 5.46%. This was the largest undercount for any age group. This persistent undercount has significant consequences because census data guides the distribution of trillions of dollars in federal funding,1 including essential programs that support children and families. While all kids are at risk, Hispanic and Black children are even more likely to be missed than white children.
Many federal programs rely on accurate demographic and population data to direct funding where it is needed most. For example, undercounting student populations can result in inadequate education resources while overcounting an area’s population could lead to improper reclassification as urban, making communities ineligible for support intended for rural areas.2 Using data from the Project on Government Oversight, which identifies federal programs that rely on census data to allocate funds, and First Focus on Children data tracking federal investments in children,3 we examined the extent to which children’s programs are exposed to inaccurate census information.
Programs affected include Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC), Payments to States for Adoption Assistance, and child care support. In addition to threatening the distribution of a decade of federal funds, low quality census data also degrades information used by Congress and by state governments to prioritize funding decisions across their budgets.
Executive branch actions continue to create uncertainty for programs and services that children and families depend on and have raised concerns about whether funding decisions approved by Congress are being carried out as intended. Delays in releasing education funding, efforts to reorganize federal agencies without explicit congressional authorization, and interruptions affecting nutrition and other support programs have created challenges for families as well as the states, schools, and local communities working to serve them. These developments come at a time when federal investments in children have already been declining as a share of the federal budget, despite clear evidence that investments in children improve health outcomes, educational attainment, economic mobility, and long-term economic growth.
Children benefit when funding decisions are transparent, predictable, and implemented consistent with congressional intent. When investments in programs that support children’s health, nutrition, education, housing, and economic security are reduced or disrupted, children are more likely to experience poverty and hardship, with consequences that can affect their development, academic success, long-term earnings, and overall well-being. Reversing the long-term disinvestment in children should be a national priority, beginning with protecting Congress’s constitutional power of the purse and ensuring that resources appropriated for children and families reach the households and communities they are intended to serve.
That same commitment to evidence-based and equitable funding decisions requires investing in a complete and accurate 2030 Census. Without sufficient funding to test and implement strategies that improve the count of young children, policymakers risk making funding and representation decisions based on incomplete data for the next decade. Robust federal investment is necessary to improve Census operations, outreach, and research so that all children are counted and communities receive their fair share of federal resources.
These impacts would also vary significantly by state, with particularly large consequences for the nation’s youngest children. Based on a previous state-by-state analysis of 13 of the largest federal programs investing in children 0–3,4 we identified a minimum estimate of the federal dollars at stake for children under 3 in each state.5
Children’s needs are urgent and growing. For every state, millions of dollars are on the line for children ages 0–3 alone. In California and Texas, for example, nearly $7 billion in federal funding for young children each is tied to Census-guided allocations. The stakes for achieving a more accurate count in 2030 could not be higher.
